Industrial Gaming 10 | Wii: Second Console in More Than One Way?

By the time Nintendo and Sony launch the Wii and PS3 respectively, Microsoft's Xbox 360 will have been on store shelves for a year, and this early advantage will serve the company well for the next five of them. North America is the stronghold market for Xbox and we should see sales nearing double that of the original console, expect 25 Million units to sell through and a hard fight with Sony for first place. From a European perspective the hype and success has actually been blown out of proportion by a very American based media. The simple numbers show that while 3.5 Million units flew off US shelves leading up to late July, in the same period only 1.4 Million Europeans made the purchase.

Could the latest news of FIFA and Pro Evolution exclusivity for the next year help the giant American corporation though? Bluntly it will help for a while but the European markets love Sony with regards to the Playstation brand and should be more than willing to wait, have a price drop, then make the switch. Numbers wise expect Microsoft to flat out double their market with 10 Million systems over the next five years. Finally we have the dear old Japanese market, with the 2006 sales of Xbox 360 not even at the hundred thousand stage the console is clearly in a great deal of trouble. When its competitors launch this trouble will be compounded and Microsoft may even struggle to move the 500,000 sales level of the first machine.

So you've got more chance of being mauled by a giant enemy crab in feudal Japan than Microsoft have of winning the console war, what about Sony? Brand strength is what it's all about here; Sony shipped 103 Million PlayStations in ten years, then went on to do the same in five with PS2, so they are clearly looking good for number three. In all honesty I think we sometimes forget what made Sony the clear and unprecedented No. 1 manufacturer, it attracted consumers that probably think E3 is a nasty chemical found in some food products. The other important factor here is how much Sony is going to push the PS3, I could argue that the very future of Sony hinges on the success of both Blu-Ray and the Cell processor. With a strong install base, large brand appeal and heavy promotion PS3 should be just fine, even at THAT launch price...

In terms of numbers Sony will benefit from a "bigger is better" America, one that is eager and ready for High Definition content. Expect Sony to ship 25 Million units over the next five years. Europe will also see healthy shipments that will soar to levels of 30 Million units as popular gimmicks like Eye Toy and Guitar Hero hit the market. On their home soil Sony will face stiff competition from Nintendo but shipments shouldn't take too big a hit, flirting in the region of 20 Million come 2012. Indeed thanks to Nintendo Japan, along with the rest of the world, the country will be seeing a nice amount of market growth over the next five years. But just how will Nintendo do worldwide?

I have my fears and reservations about Wii in the North American market; the system defies the typical American norms, and frankly competition there will be huge. If Nintendo wishes to perform well in the market they will have to live up to the non-gamers hype and greatly grow in the market. If they don't the system will likely become a fanboy and kiddies console. Leaving my obvious bias at the door (or trying to...) Wii will probably sell through 15 Million units during the next five years, representing healthy growth but nothing too exciting. Europe on the other hand is where the real improvements will see Nintendo shoot back to former glory. High sales of key title Nintendogs prove the casual friendly status of the markets and many Europeans should see Wii as a real alternative to the expensive PS3. The little console with big ideas will take another 15 Million sales here, growing three-fold.

Finally we have the market that will go crazy for the dodgy-named little console, one that is exactly the Japanese consumers cup of tea. Satoru Iwata is taking off the gloves, dipping his knuckles in glue then glass and making a full on charge for Sir Howard Stringer. It will be bloody, a classic David versus Goliath battle, aside the lack of a clear winner. Nintendo's strength in Japan lies quite firmly in cost, though many gamers may want the PS3 upgrade it could present just too costly for the first few years. Keep an eye out for Nintendo expanding four-fold and selling 20 Million systems in Japan over the next five long years.

At the end of the day I'm probably as wrong as the next man, but it's my honest take on a very interesting (if over analysed...) battle for market share. One last question I would bring forward is who the winners of this really are? You could argue that it's the gamer with all the product and game choices, but at such astronomical hardware and software costs for some products I'm really not that sure. It'll probably just be EA...

Barry Lewis is Cubed3's top industry analyst and his feature, Industrial Gaming, is published every fortnight...if he remembers...