Industrial Gaming 12 | 4 Million Wii Sales In 2006: Reality Or Insanity?

By Barry Lewis 06.10.2006 18

4 Million Wii Sales In 2006: Reality Or Insanity?
Barry Lewis :: 05th October 2006 :: Issue 12


As Nintendo prepares a worldwide launch of Wii this coming holiday period, the company leads with a bullish claim to sell 4 Million units before 2007. Blissful fans rejoiced, seasoned cynics laughed and brushed off such aspirations, while eager statisticians looked a little further into the claim. Is this more PR hyperbole from a company looking to drum up support, or is this the prelude to the greatest launch-selling console in the history of modern gaming? Read on to find out...

"...After the Americas lead the worldwide launch on Nov. 19, Nintendo expects to sell 4 million Wii consoles globally by the end of 2006...we are working to ensure a plentiful supply and a consistent flow."

First of all we need to clear up a few facts; the shambled worldwide launch of Xbox 360 is not an indication of things to come, and the troubles facing Sony are not indicative of launch preparations at Nintendo HQ. Interestingly the above quote was in response to Internet speculation, a subject Nintendo generally avoids like the plague, and it was not the opinion or agenda of one PR individual. It is the calculated response from Nintendo as a company, one that is building up a vast supply of launch units for all territories, and it is a statement of pure confidence. If Nintendo plan to sell 4 Million units, they certainly plan to ship 4 Million units.

With that in mind, could Nintendo really sell 4 Million consoles in what amounts to little over 13 cumulative weeks at retail? The best place to look is at their last platform launch. In the Americas Nintendo launched the DS on November 21st 2004 and they now plan to release the Wii on November 19th 2006. This is obviously an important date for the market with thanksgiving on the 23rd followed by Christmas celebrations a month later. NPD, a sales and market research company, show 479,000 DS sales in the November, with the system then selling through 745,899 units in December. I think we can all agree that these DS launch sales are a good indication of things to come with Wii...


While one-and-a-quarter-million certainly is a good start to things, the North American market also represents a very large and equally important retail space for any sales Nintendo hope to capture. Likewise the Japanese market is touted to be one of great strength for Nintendo, as exemplified by the runaway success of the Nintendo DS. When it launched on December 2nd 2004 - the same date in 2006 for Wii

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J4K is offline. J4K 05.10.2006#1

Very good work Barry! Another thing to keep in mind with the launch of the original DS was shortages--I or any of my friends spread accros multiple states couldn't find a console until late January following the November launch. With the Wii being well stocked, as you said, Nintendo just might do it!

 
jesusraz is offline. jesusraz 05.10.2006#2

There will no doubt be Wii shortage...what's interesting is how it's been confirmed the US will get 1 million. So does that mean 500k for Eur, 500k for Aus and the remaining 2 million for Japan? Hmm...

Adam Riley [ Director :: Cubed3 ]

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J4K is offline. J4K 05.10.2006#3

jesusraz said:
There will no doubt be Wii shortage...whats interesting is how its been confirmed the US will get 1 million. So does that mean 500k for Eur, 500k for Aus and the remaining 2 million for Japan? Hmm...

I thought they said the US was getting the most?

 
jesusraz is offline. jesusraz 05.10.2006#4

But they also said the US is getting a million...hmm...unless it's a case of Japan will get 1 million...with the remaining million units being spread mainly to the US before Christmas?

Adam Riley [ Director :: Cubed3 ]

UNITE714: Weekly Prayers | Bible Verses
 
J4K is offline. J4K 05.10.2006#5

jesusraz said:
But they also said the US is getting a million...hmm...unless its a case of Japan will get 1 million...with the remaining million units being spread mainly to the US before Christmas?

That could be--a lot of American's don't do shopping until the week before Christmas; Nintendo wouldn't want to miss out on that with a lack of stock.

 
amtrid is offline. amtrid 05.10.2006#6

surely the most interesting point here is if nintendo did pull this 4 million in 31 days off then in a month they would be halfway to the total sales of the 360 which has had a year to gain market share. it seems somewhat ridiculous but also facinating if nintendo pull this off then ms need to watch their backs.

 
jb is offline. jb 05.10.2006#7

I really hope Nintendo pull this off! There seems to be a building interest from general gamers/consumers from what I've seen in walk-about interviews and from people in shops.

Good stuff Barry as usual! Top work mate Smilie

Cubed3 Admin/Founder & Designer
 
Crazylurch is offline. Crazylurch 05.10.2006#8

I hope Ninty sells that many too. I think they have a chance. A small chance but it is there.

Woooooooo!!!
 
J4K is offline. J4K 05.10.2006#9

amtrid said:
surely the most interesting point here is if nintendo did pull this 4 million in 31 days off then in a month they would be halfway to the total sales of the 360 which has had a year to gain market share. it seems somewhat ridiculous but also facinating if nintendo pull this off then ms need to watch their backs.

True, but you must not forget that Microsoft will probably have a good holiday as well--and it will have plenty of stock this year most likely.

It'll definately be an exciting time of year, what with the Wii, PS3, and 360 fighting it out!

 
Satoshi is offline. Satoshi 05.10.2006#10

Cool

This is almost like mathsSmilie

Avoid Games Like the Plague, productivity++
 
sbspfan101 is offline. sbspfan101 05.10.2006#11

the Wii will sell out of all 4million very fast. think about evey site that takes pre orders for it online are sold out the nintendo store is sold out yeah its goin to be gone and hard to get.

 
Megadanxzero is offline. Megadanxzero 06.10.2006#12

If the Wii turns out to be anywhere NEAR as popular as the DS (Which at the moment it certainly looks like it will) then I don't think they'll have any problem selling 4 million. According to Joystiq there are reports of production of 9 million consoles by the end of the year too O.o

Still a proud member of the 'omfg amazing water in games' society
 
nin10do is offline. nin10do 06.10.2006#13

Cheers guys Smilie

There will no doubt be Wii shortage...what's interesting is how it's been confirmed the US will get 1 million. So does that mean 500k for Eur, 500k for Aus and the remaining 2 million for Japan? Hmm...

I'd hope 2 Million for the Americas, 1 to Europe and 1 to Japan. That way overseas is stocked up, with home supply easily backed up with a trickle going abroad if needed.

As for the Joystiq report, I personally don't put much faith in the source. There's another source claiming around 5.5 Million units by years end, which sounds on the money to me Smilie

Barry Lewis [ nin10do :: General Writer :: Feature Writer :: Fountain of Industry Statistics ]
"We're mentalist psychic Scots, which means we can read your mind. If you're lying, your head explodes and we laugh."
 
The Croft is offline. The Croft 06.10.2006#14

The 360 has just sold over 4m copies and the Nintendo plan to sell 4m in 13weeks, makes the 360 seem terrible in comparison.

Raz there is no way Australia will get 500k, they will be lucky if they got 100k


Mike Gee of iZINE said, "...The Verve, as he [Richard Ashcroft] promised, had become the greatest band in the world. Most of the critics agreed with him. Most paid due homage. The Verve were no longer the question mark or the clich�. They were the statement and the definition."
 
tiamat1990 is offline. tiamat1990 07.10.2006#15

I won't believe it till I see it.

 
nin10do is offline. nin10do 07.10.2006#16

Time will indeed tell, my bets are certainly on some ego waxing PR statements come the new year Smilie

Barry Lewis [ nin10do :: General Writer :: Feature Writer :: Fountain of Industry Statistics ]
"We're mentalist psychic Scots, which means we can read your mind. If you're lying, your head explodes and we laugh."
 
Pazooka is offline. Pazooka 13.10.2006#17

My hypothesis is that the 1 million wii units allocated to America will sell out easily, so much so that I'm expecting shortages. Japan will eat em up also, but just how many units will they recieve? I assume 1.5 - 2 million or possibly more. As for Europe and Australia, I have no idea. We auzzies do love Nintendo, but is it to the extent of 500,000 units? I think we will get that amount, but they may sell quite slowly. Europe will get a fair deal more than us, and then the remaining units will go to Mexico, New Zealand etc... (not sure if Canada is included in the 1 million units for U.S or not)

Please add my Wii-code and tell me yours.
 
Tman!! is offline. Tman!! 13.10.2006#18

ive heard that the inital production was going to be higher than 4million becuase of the massive numbers of preorders and the game stores tellin nintendo that demand for the wii has far exceeded anything they expected, personally i think wii will sale at least 4million and it will be testement to nintendo's plan of inlcuding everyone in gaming and making it something everyone can do again!


 

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