News: Industry News | Wii Dominate by 2010? Page 1

Industry News | Wii Dominate by 2010?

02.05.2007

With the three next(new) generation offerings on the market for some time now, UBS analyst Benjamin Schachter has offered his predictions on where each would be by the end of the decade.

GameDaily's feature reveals the core part of the 92-page report: By 2010, the Wii will dominate on a worldwide tally at 51.9 million, Sony's PS3 in second place at 47.2m and Microsoft's Xbox 360 with a slightly lower 38.9m.

Region wise, he believes the PS3 will do well in the US, just lower than the Xbox 360, followed closely by Wii (22,21,19m). In Europe, he predicts again a fairly close margin with Microsoft dominating once more, followed again by Sony and Nintendo (15.5, 14, 12.5m). Nintendo's forte is said to be Japan, with a large lead over the competition, Sony in second and Microsoft trailing along in last place (20.5, 11.7, 900,000).

He believes that "The weak launch of the PS3 may be rectified by price cuts and new drive titles, but there is no guarantee. If PS3 continues to disappoint, it could impact the entire group," and that Sony needs to shape up to continue in the swaying market.

Will Nintendo dominate worldwide by 2010? Be sure to comment below..

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Raff 02.05.2007#1

I reckon it will, I'm not convinced game sales will keep up though.

It's going to be shit and you jolly well know it.

Jump_button 02.05.2007#2

it all way hard to say but right now it look like the wii and ps3 will do well but if they dont cut ps3 down then maybe it be 360 2rd but idk :/ i just cant see how wii cant do really well

well they is some thing that game that just get port from ps2 game -_- soon as we get real wii game it b 100% 1st

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Darkflame 02.05.2007#3

As long as Sonys arrogance continues, its sales will fail.

In other news;

GAME BUYS GAMESTATION

UK GAMERS SCREWED.

( Edited on 02.05.2007 13:03 by Darkflame )

http://www.fanficmaker.com <-- Tells some truly terrible tales.
Last update; Mice,Plumbers,Animatronics and Airbenders. We also have the socials; Facebook & G+.

Mandown 02.05.2007#4

Well of course it's going to whip the ass of Microsoft in the long run, people will go for the two extremes eventually. LS

ohm 02.05.2007#5

Wii and 360 will emerge victorious, like I have been always saying. PS3 is going to flop.

Jump_button 02.05.2007#6

Darkflame said:
As long as Sonys arrogance continues, its sales will fail.In other news;GAME BUYS GAMESTATIONUK GAMERS SCREWED.( Edited on 02.05.2007 13:03 by Darkflame )

FU*

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Dr_R 02.05.2007#7

I think this xmas (God it's just turned May and I'm talking about xmas) will be really important.

Admittedly I'm not really up on the PS3's upcoming titles, but it seems to me that the pincer movement of Mario Galaxy, Metroid 3 and Smash Bros from Nintendo, and Halo 3 (plus some other stuff I'm not really aware of) from Microsoft might squeeze Sony out of the race this gen. As far as I can see all the really big games for PS3 are coming to 360 as well. Again, that'll hurt the more expensive PS3 at xmas.

Is there something I'm missing? Are FF XIII and MGS4 due on PS3 this xmas? Will that matter outside of Japan (where the battle with 360 doesn't exist and Nintendo are already miles ahead)? Anything else?

"This man has advanced communist views ... He dresses in a bohemian fashion both at his office and in his leisure hours."

Nintendo Lad 02.05.2007#8

I think it will. But the Xbox will come in second. Theres no way the PS3 can overtake it now.

Darkflame 02.05.2007#9

" Is there something I'm missing? Are FF XIII and MGS4 due on PS3 this xmas"

Nope.
Mid to late 2008 is when Sony's bigger games start rolling in.

Even the interesting looking LBP dosnt come out this year.

http://www.fanficmaker.com <-- Tells some truly terrible tales.
Last update; Mice,Plumbers,Animatronics and Airbenders. We also have the socials; Facebook & G+.

Dr_R 02.05.2007#10

Mid to late 2008 will, in all probability, be too late for Sony. By that stage the publishers will have jumped ship to something more profitable.

Just look at the Gamecube: if early endeavor isn't backed up by immediate success, third-parties will jump ship.

"This man has advanced communist views ... He dresses in a bohemian fashion both at his office and in his leisure hours."

snkngshps 02.05.2007#11

I believe Nintendo will dominate, but I really don't think that the PS3 will be 2nd place. I live in the US and people do not care at all about PS3, mainly for price tag issues. The thing is, the PS3 is so expensive to produce that even the biggest price drop they could afford would still be too expensive for most people. I also agree with Dr_R. After a while, game companies are going to get tired of releasing games on a system that no one owns.

Andrezao 02.05.2007#12

apparently FFXIII and MGS are not coming this year, Hideo has stated trouble with the Blu ray and FFXIII is said to come on all consoles all with its own unique features. don't see people picking this up where they can get a cheaper console for basically the same thing, and seeing how SE is having a growing relationship with nintendo, and how their games proved to be a hit on nintendo's consoles, i see it likely for thw Wii and DS to have awesome games not just from them but from many. just let them see how SMG, SSBB and MP3 turns out in graphics/controls/sales and they'll take the Wii and DS as priorities!! Wii will win for sure, but the DS will be far ahead.

( Edited on 02.05.2007 16:29 by Andrezao )

Darkflame 02.05.2007#13

BluRay drive on the PS3 is slow, which is causing some developers problems apperently.
The extra storagespace, in some case's, is being used to duplicate files accross the disk to increase read speeds.

http://www.fanficmaker.com <-- Tells some truly terrible tales.
Last update; Mice,Plumbers,Animatronics and Airbenders. We also have the socials; Facebook & G+.

Laurelin 02.05.2007#14

Since when can weatherman predict weather (Back To The Future, part 1)

Since when can analysts analyse gaming-market? (me)

really, this is very cloudy. No one can say what every company will do to grab the market. Right now MS ist doing good with core games. Sony lacks all games and Nintendo is in the last third of the post-launch-no-games phase. So what comes next? MP3, SMG, new Zelda... okay. 3 hits. Now Sony with their portfolio... looking more grim at the moment. MS has Halo3. Okay.
Then? Casual games? Nintendo got the nose for that, but now Sony with their Second-Life-clone, wants to give us new VC, original titles and what with linking of DS and/or PSP...?

There are a fucking lot of variables to pick up that absolutely no analyst can predict the market. Sceond it's a market that no analyst understands. Then there is marketing. What will Sony pull of, will Nintendo continue to advertise. Is Ninty able to put Wii in the market as a familiy product, as a life stile like iPod, as a core-system? Maybe 3rd parties will develop hordes of great core games on Wii (not EA, as we see elsewehere)?

Ergo: I think he fails completely in predicting.

And above all, he is American? UBS? Whatever. Does he understands old Europe? Japan? No, Sir.
UK may be similar to US, but Germany, France, Spain most certainliy are not...

I find your lack of faith disturbing!

Satoshi 02.05.2007#15

I'm curious...what were analysts' predictions on GameCube or N64 sales?
Did they predict sony would take over?

Avoid Games Like the Plague, productivity++

The Croft 02.05.2007#16

There no chance the 360 will sell the best in Europe. The 360 is only doing well in America with relative success in the Uk, Canada and Australia.

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DaOne 02.05.2007#17

Well with Nintendo creating a false demand and not sending any units here I wouldn't bet on that.

No Longer Temporarily Banned.

Raff 02.05.2007#18

Co Chief Resident John Dorian said:
There no chance the 360 will sell the best in Europe. The 360 is only doing well in America with relative success in the Uk, Canada and Australia.

That's because pretty much everyone who wants one for the games that are out now, has one. Once the big guns start coming out again later this year I'm sure it will pick up steam again.

It's going to be shit and you jolly well know it.

dojo 02.05.2007#19

Grumbler said:
Co Chief Resident John Dorian said:There no chance the 360 will sell the best in Europe. The 360 is only doing well in America with relative success in the Uk, Canada and Australia.
Thats because pretty much everyone who wants one for the games that are out now, has one. Once the big guns start coming out again later this year Im sure it will pick up steam again.

Definitely agree there. GTA and Halo 3 will surely boost the 360 way above the Wii and PS3 later this year. (Granted, the headstart and all, but still)...

Raff 02.05.2007#20

The headstart is exactly why it's apparently doing badly at the moment, because the Wii is going through it's launch period excitement, conveniently extended by artificial supply shortages (I mean, come on...).

It's going to be shit and you jolly well know it.

Sidepocket 02.05.2007#21

Grumbler said:
Co Chief Resident John Dorian said:There no chance the 360 will sell the best in Europe. The 360 is only doing well in America with relative success in the Uk, Canada and Australia.
Thats because pretty much everyone who wants one for the games that are out now, has one. Once the big guns start coming out again later this year Im sure it will pick up steam again.

That is what they have also said about Gamecube, Dreamcast, and every "failed" system.

While I do not agree with his predictions, the guy dose make a good point how Japan skews everything.

Raff 02.05.2007#22

Well yes, broadly speaking Europe and NA have much more in common than with Japan.

That is what they have also said about Gamecube, Dreamcast, and every "failed" system.

And a lot of succesful systems as well, as usual with such comparisons.

( Edited on 02.05.2007 18:54 by Grumbler )

It's going to be shit and you jolly well know it.

Megadanxzero 02.05.2007#23

If they actually release some of the games they're apparently making (or have made) then I imagine they will be...

Still a proud member of the 'omfg amazing water in games' society

Mongo 02.05.2007#24

Raab said:
Well with Nintendo creating a false demand and not sending any units here I wouldnt bet on that.

How can anyone create a "false demand"? Smilie

Grumbler said:
The headstart is exactly why its apparently doing badly at the moment, because the Wii is going through its launch period excitement, conveniently extended by artificial supply shortages (I mean, come on...).

Why is it so hard to believe that demand is outpacing production without cooking up some kind of conspiracy theory?

Nintendo has been making Wii's at a pace greater than any other console launch in history. They make more per month than MS makes of 360s and Sony makes of PS3s...but there is still more demand than production (unlike the 360 and PS3 which which have plenty of supply compared to demand).

They've doubled the output and still aren't keeping up.

There's nothing artificial about this shortage...Demand is exceeding supply, and Nintendo can't make them any faster (well, at least until they ramp up even more production capability...but since it took them almost 5 months to go from 500,000 a month to 1,000,000 a month, it might be a while before they can bump it up again).

They make money on every Wii they sell (regardless of the number of games purchased). And more sales now means a larger potential market for software (which they also make money on), and more interest from developers (which we're already starting to see with all of the announcements of new Nintendo Publishers and Developers).

It's in their best interests to sell as many as they can, as quickly as they can.

Nintendo likes making money Smilie

Raff 02.05.2007#25

Megadanxzero said:
If they actually release some of the games theyre apparently making (or have made) then I imagine they will be...

The paradox is that they're doing it on purpose to make the 3rd party situation better, but since it's way too late to save the Wii from being labelled as a family/port squat/minigame machine by the 3rd parties, there's no alternative and the result is a drought. Smilie

It's going to be shit and you jolly well know it.

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